Want to stop losing money on football games?
The answer: Stop gambling.
But,
Start investing. Analyzing. Calculating.
"The most important questions of life are, for the most part, really only problems of probability."
(Pierre Simon de Laplace, "Théorie Analytique des Probabilités")
It's admirable that you read newspapers, reviews, and official analysis on soccer games religiously before making any bets. Nevertheless, your friendly neighbourhood bookie would most probably think otherwise, since they'll be winning anyway. Judging from the fact that these bookies are receipting bets amounting to several thousands or even millions of dollars daily , it is only sound to acknowledge that they don't plan to lose. And most of you should know that, their business is 100% profiteering. But in detail, how do they do that?
The key lies in simple math and logic.
Math and logic is relevant in every part of our life. Even more so in 'gambling'. Most certainly, besides football betting, you would be an enthusiast of various other games such as Poker, Black jack, Mahjong, et cetera. You should have heard of the renown Don Schlesinger and MIT Alumni Jeff Ma who specializes in Blackjack, current mahjong world champion Li Li, and the likes of these 'professional gamblers'. I italicize the words 'gambling' because as much as they would resent being labeled as gamblers, it would obviously be erroneous and illogical to do so. Simply because. Unlike the most of you, they do not gamble.
They calculate and analyze.
Edward O.Thorp, an IBM computer scientist, published "Beat the Dealer" in 1962 and struck casinos around the globe with consternation. The book featured the method 'card_counting ', which allocated positive values to the cards 10 to Ace, and negative values to cards 2 to 6. The player is to count the distributed cards and increase the bet if the net result in the remaining deck was positive. Perceivable results were reaped and the casinos altered their rules drastically in fear, changing the recurrences of shuffling and furthermore devised the multiple deck blackjack.
David Slansky's well acclaimed award winning book, "Theory of Poker"(1987), regards implied odds as an integral aspect of fundamental Poker Strategy.
The strategies of Mahjong involves deducing your opponent's desired tiles from what they throw. For example, if a player, assumingly sane and sober, discards a bamboo 5, one can deduce with fair certainty that he does not have a combination of bamboo 3 and 4, nor 6 and 7.
Should one be surprised at the fact that soccer betting has a theory of that sort to itself?
If you have been betting on soccer for some time now, you would have realized, that there is something intriguing about the odds and handicaps set by the bookmakers.
The fact is, these odds and handicaps are formulas calculated by elite groups of analysts and accountants the bookmakers employ. Statistically manufactured to account for all factors reviewed at the outset, and throughout, and in the midst of games, the odds and handicaps are the only tools a bookmaker needs to ensure absolute profitability.
Although the handicap and odds formula can only be derived upon much calculations, the system works on basic mathematical and logical premises. This can be illustrated through a simple scenario:
Assuming John is a bookmaker and he has only two clients and each is betting on different teams. Obviously John will never lose, and can stabilize his profit margin if he sets the terms of the bet tactfully. This can be done by requiring the clients to pay 100% of their bets should they lose, and only retrieve 85% of their bet should they win. Now, the scenario would be more complicated should John has, say, four clients. How does he make sure two will favor one team and the other two another? Here, the handicap configuration comes into place. John will deliberately fix the handicap in such a way, that it would seem equally favorable to bet on either side.
Despite being foolproof for the bookmakers, the system actually create patterns that guide soccer punters on the choice, frequency, and quantity of bets required to maximize the probability of winning. Out of these patterns, some punters were able to formulate systems using simple math and logic, that are ingenious enough, to beat the bookies at their own game.
There is a view that the games are predetermined by underground mafia networks, and results can be predicted by specific analysis of the odds given. "There are reasons why the odds are put in such a way for all the matches. The bookies already know the outcome of the game way before the game start and the odds they came up with is just a betting guideline for punters to punt." Eric Surya, a former Analyst in the Hong Kong underground bookie scene, writing of "Guerilla Betting System "(2005) comments.
Although there is much controversy about that saying, these beat-the-bookie-systems seem to have much to offer.
"If there are ways to chart the movement of the stock market, methods to reduce risk in forex investments, probability strategies to ensure leverage at petite games like blackjack and even roulette, why not formulaes to win at football betting?", quips a veteran football bettor.
With the increasing popularity of football betting and rigorous expansion of football bookmaking companies, one can visualize a change of landscape for the football betting business from an underground leisure provider to a legitimate investment arena akin to the stock or forex markets. And these betting systems designed to educate football betting enthusiasts might just pave the way.
Like I said, if you want to win, stop gambling.
Start studying and calculating instead.
References:
- Complier Systems (2006); Make 418 pounds a day betting soccer
- Making Your Bookie Your ATM Machine (2006)
- Eric Surya (2005); Guerilla Betting - The Bookie's Killing Machine
- Frank Belanger (2005); Secret Football Systems
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